.:Out-of-the-box:.

First let’s check some numbers. Big winner in MMO world is still, undoubtedly, World of Warcraft. Last announcement (2008) from Blizzard reveals peak number of 11.5 (yes, almost twelve) million subscribers.

World of Warcraft census currently shows about 5.6 million active players. Certainly not a peak now, but for a 5 years old game with overgrowing competition in all possible dimensions, it still impresses me. If you consider their business model and potential revenue stream, it is a lifetime worth your envy. I filtered the census’ numbers and have found that European servers have gathered about 2.5M subscribers. Quite a slice from the overall number! Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think it is close to 1/10 of all Xbox 360 consoles in the UK.

Mentioning business model I started wondering it this genre is a good pick for consoles (if developed by third party like Blizzard). If Microsoft released one or Sony released one (or lets say they already have it with Home) it should not a problem. They both have engines to run subscription model and micro payments and the rest is described at the end.

But if 3rd party did one. If Blizzard ported WoW to Xbox, I’d not be so sure MS or Sony were happy. Reason is simple. First, if you imagine massive amount of console gamers playing WoW -> other games would not be purchased and played that often. Retail revenue would have become cut on hardware vendor’s and developer’s charts.

How hardware vendor could possibly react? For example, through smart revenue sharing deal. That would have balanced hypothetical loss. If so, there is a risk for developer, deal would become unprofitable, unbalanced and unfair, good reason to back off. Having only these conditions on mind I rather doubt if we can see in any possible future a successful (in WoW metrics) MMO example on game consoles.

The only possible exception I can imagine would become 1st party development, but only if included carefully in long term strategy. As for long term strategy I rather see that both MS and Sony are focused to chase Nintendo with equally unknown Wii phenomena, and Nintendo is just happy selling massive amount of their hardware. Another reason to doubt in good MMO game on game consoles in reasonable future.

Last week I spent in “The Fabulous” Las Vegas. It was my first trip to the Sin City. I believed it might become crazy and it was, both in my private time as well as on MIX10 conference.

I’m quite often attending major Microsoft conferences (those that attract global audience). I thought that PDC is the place to go. MIX is definitely an equalizer. Major announcements and keynotes not to forget long is one thing, huge content as for sessions and topics covered is the second. Add great people both from Microsoft and partner + customer space. Head can literally blow up, add Vegas to it – first trip of mine and here we go with my memories

(learning a lot from my friends whispers I didn’t take a camera. “Whatever happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas” they said :>)

I’m used to perceive huge events by its major theme. PDC08 was about Visual Studio 2010, Windows Azure and Windows 7. PDC09 was little bit unclear to me, but with great Silverlight 4 announcements that made the conference worth its time. MIX10 all about WP7 at least for me, second message worth coming was IE9. These two products showed that even though Microsoft overslept many years in Mobility and Internet standards now was the time to show that it was just because dreams were huge and company showed truly that it can provide features audience demands. It’s not a victory yet but good pair of trainers to run after all again at full speed.

As for technologies behind products, Silverlight and Xna grow really fast to become a mainstream focus for Microsoft oriented developer. Both started as some tiny projects with portable aspirations in their specialties: Silverlight in RIA space, Xna to become the gaming primer. Both still have to win their developer audience but with extension to Windows Phone Series and features coming in version 4.0 of these two technologies I’m expecting fast reach and aspiration growth for other application types and scale utilizing these technologies.

To add more, Scott Gurthie and his wolf pack announced that tool-set to address these apps will be free and stay free forever. This includes SL and Xna projects and also (most importantly) includes Blend to keep designers busy with the company. That’s really great move.

Second day showed that under good and strong reign weak performers can go back to the good track. Most sessions I remember with Dean Hachamovitch speaking were rather subtle arrogant rather a visionary. Since Steven Sinofsky took the team over I see what I’d seen with Windows 7: a reasonable path from unfinished Windows Vista to Windows 7 we all love.

IE’s Platform Preview is first touchable proof that Steven has meant what he said during PDC keynote. Four months later and we have CSS3 selectors test passed and Acid3 at the mid point. Still much more to do but Html5 and CSS3 looks indeed like a priority. IE’s Platform Preview is in fact a technical demo to show current stage of IE’s rendering capacities. It’s hosted on an developer ready rather a consumer ready window, which suggests also (but it is only my assumption) that maybe they have rewritten IE9 from the scratch. If they switched only renderer from IE8 to IE9 version why not to use host windows, tabs and all else from previous version’s architecture. IE9 PR dropped it all, I hope for a reason. If all that’s true and 8 weeks release promise will be kept we should expect IE’s comeback very soon.

I had a discussion with one of my friends on methods how Internet works for me. This discussion started with thesis that URL is more for technical people. That was in consequence answer to a question: why people start browsing from search engine even for known pages and relatively known addresses.

Somewhere in that conversation I shouted that I almost do not use search engine, only occasionally when I definitely need to search for something I can’t find the other way.  Never on a regular way to find “anything”.

This triggered big questioning mark on my friend’s face and big “How?!” reply.

Well short and quick answer I could provide was that I’m a power user with very well defined needs. Search is one of them but only on-demand basis rather than regular access point to the Internet.

So how can I marginalize search engines while browsing and live these days?

It started with a dramatic reflection that Internet is full of garbage and 99% of it is just useless crap I don’t need. I started to split my needs into categories like: looking for knowledge (educational), looking for recent news in areas I’m interested, communication and participating in communities then undefined, occasional search for a keyword that for any reason popped up in my mind.

With that exercise I eradicated “just to waste some time” need, so “I’m feeling lucky” feature is not for me anymore.

For communication and communities it’s easy, Facebook simplified the thing to the very end. Adding Twitter and additional clients for both I have my connections and chasing for news managed.. somehow. Getting recent information cannot be solved at its full extend as it only depends on your contacts recommendations. It’s incomplete.

So for my areas of focus I have I found 9-12 top sites that are my news and new knowledge hubs as information on web sites is very well connected, usually I can follow one site after another without any single try on search. After a while I’ll be rather bored or completely happy with the information already gathered. These sites are speed dialed and thumbnails to these pages appear on my browser’s main window.

Not to get overwhelmed, sites like tweetmeme.com and techmeme.com are blessings more powerful than Google itself.  With these sites I realized that in 2010 information stored in the Internet is much better connected by communities than Index Servers maintained in big data centers of Microsoft and Google.

I also found that for community-driven information that’s connected, search engine like Ice Rocket seems to be more attractive than anything else.

This way I surprised that friend I have mentioned, because usually I find myself free from Google and free from massive search usage on my daily browsing routine.

It’s really fantastic experience because when you start feeling it, then on a question “what can possibly kill Google’s dominance in the Internet” you find simple answer – that what has created the Internet as we see it. Which is us – the communities.

With information so well connected outside search engine, I find Twitter and Facebook as the biggest threat guys in Mountain View probably perceive and they should. These relatively new services in Web 2.0 sphere have already marginalized my search usage and I assume that they can only grow.

Just short off topic note to have you informed. I’ve got feedback, several times, that reading white text on black background may not be the best option to keep readers focused. It may be true, so I decided to experiment little bit and change it. Some little details on these pages may disappear and appear for a moment. Not text obviously, rather some details like RSS icon on the bottom (which I think should be better on top) and other layout elements. Sorry for your inconvenience, at least it’s no more white text on black background.

“The Americans don’t give a damn if the newspapers go down”, Christoph Keese, Springer’s head of public affairs

Some time ago Rupert Murdoch stated strongly that Google is his enemy in, I believe, monetizing from on-line media.  Very brave, although both sides are super powers on their markets, I don’t believe such statement can call any of these two companies into real action. In this context, I prefer less conflict-generating message I read today in New York Times article. It is about Axel Springer’s approach to paid digital media.

This article highlights very important point, that can be missed in Murdoch’s yelling on “grand theft news”. Axel Springer’s name for that point is “noncommodity journalism” which has huge direct monetizing potential.

I agree on that point. I’m a blogger, I add my own two cents to gigantic basket of user generated information you can reach on the Web. In this basket, many of us, contributors, are pure amateurs with no pen-power. Some are just undiscovered natural-born talents. Judging on this dimension isn’t critical, I believe. We live in Web 2.0 era where users gained back ruling power over Internet, at least they think so in this highly commercialized Internet where vendors just give users more attractive and flexible tools. That’s the major difference between 90ties and now I see. 15 years ago when I discovered Internet I had to be a technically savvy to contribute back to the Internet. Who was not so savvy, could only communicate over Internet and download stuff. Now no technological knowledge is necessary to bring professional content to the Web and many people have already realized that.

So, in such a world, how can a publisher think of pushing me to pay for the digital information presented on their pages? High quality and rare content is the key. From undiscovered bloggers to big media companies I can simply split content to crappy and cool. Usually I perceive content crappy not because author has no writing skills. More often I’m disappointed because exposed topic gives just an idea, a beginning of something without any real content and good ending helping me to grow with my own conclusions. So I’m searching and search doesn’t help in crystallizing the idea. Even if it does I waste time to handle more information than I need to be finally able to articulate that missed conclusion.

I miss journalism with a thought so much that if I find such a source I appreciate it almost like a magical experience to live back in ancient times. There is so much just copied & pasted information repeated on the web that I’m astonished every time I find a jewel, where writers are people who really want to say something. More and more I’m trying to avoid semi-automatons driving for new clicks with every trick Web 2.0 technology gives them.

One of the unstoppable trends in the Web is to give as much as possible, as fast as possible. With that trick working next step is to bind people to the the resource and monetize indirectly. No one can fight with it and win. Fair enough, but I see more and more space for: (1) not so fast delivery, (2) not so much of information really hard to comprehend why I need it, (3) well written stories which have everything they should have to be perceived as complete.

Compare Kotaku or Polish Polygamia with Escapist Magazine or Edge in games industry to see one example. Totally different approach in news chasing.

Will "Reverse" achieve as spectacular success in America as it has recently done Poland?

Older I am, more confused I am with my approach to movies. I remember when I was first time in America couple of years ago and had very interesting conversation about movies with some local guys. I was asked a simple question: what kind of movies do I like.
At that time, for me, movies in theaters were just a cheap and easy alternative for live spectacles, for which I could not (yes, my fault) find time to organize myself and go. So I was choosing usually more ambitious movie projects with more flexible schedule at big cinematic complexes and I was watching them quite often. I looked for some artistic taste in each and every movie I had watched. Coming back to the question,  I answered, “I like ambitious movies and prefer directors with crazy ideas”, like Lars von Trier, Coens brothers, David Lynch to give some examples. In response I heard: “that’s funny, I go watching movies to relax and stop thinking for a moment, not to torment myself with hard to understand content”. And I had understood that approach too. I appreciated simple action and brainless comedies too, but not as a majority of my choices.

There are different tastes and I believe many people can say totally different story, if somebody asked them the same simple question. I think that many more go and watch movies just to experience some primal sense fun with easy story and great special effects. That’s where the power of Hollywood have established itself for a while. For me balance is important. I’m happy to perceive that a good mixture of fun, f/x pimping up the atmosphere and rich, surprising story seems to be more common in recent movies. It just makes it harder to judge simply, which movies are 100% good and which are 100% crappy with no single line of defense. Fair enough.

I’m giving this long introduction to my yesterday’s activity, which was a trip to local cinema and watching new Polish movie entitled “Reverse”. I’m talking about it because this movie is our, Polish, candidate for American Academy’s Awards, best known as Oscars. Having all above indicators in mind, I’m wondering if that movie will be anyhow noticed by American critics. I think “Reverse”, although it’s not easy movie to understand for a foreigner, has all these elements I have already mentioned. It has good balance of general fun. It has great story established in a period about which we (at least young) Poles would like to forget and go on. It has also some very interesting techniques used in the movie. Movie is prefabricated to look like old black&white production from the past. It has some shifts between past and presents. The only weakest point is camera. I see so many talented Polish guys behind the camera in American blockbusters. Seems so sad that those, who still make movies in Poland are “old school” so badly. Still a great movie, see below musical theme with well known trumpet player, Gary Guthman performing for it:

Movie’s theme is set in Poland, in middle 50′ties of the past century. A few years after a War War II, in still demolished Warsaw, a post war Polish society and community is rebuilding itself. Poland is influenced badly by early (and hardest) stage of communism with Stalin being still alive. In these “interesting” times we see a simple family of three women: grandmother, mother and adult daughter, struggling in very new for them, hostile world of distrust, invigilation and law made for officials, not for the people. These women have their daily problems bound to the times they lived in. I don’t want to spoil the story, so I’ll add that all these struggles are told in a mix of Woody’s Allen and Coens brothers style. Black humour, parallel personal stories and dramas being correlated in strange way. Movie simple binds you to your seat until it ends. Gay ends, because at the end, it even pays the attention to the modern definition of diversity.

Film has become very popular in Poland, but still I wonder, how will it be perceived in far Los Angeles. We have a history of Oscars given to dear Polish fellows for artistic, niche productions, like Wajda’s movies. Competition doesn’t look as a short list, though. Will see, I wish them good luck. Impressive movie.

courtesy of David Longo. Click the image to see more of his amazing works.

I read an interesting article about future platforms in gaming. Square-Enix Executive Yoichi Wada says nothing new, but reminds that “Cloud Computing” will impact heavily also Game Industry.

Social and browser based games will grow dramatically Mr Wada says and Polish Gaming Magazine “Polygamia” fears that if it becomes true, real hardcore gamer related genres will unfortunately die unpopular to all these 10-minutes long game-play browser,facebook, mobile alike alternatives.

I fear not such a thing. Today proves that RIA (Both in Microsoft’s Silverlight and Adobe’s Flash applications) can handle sophisticated 3D engines. What they mostly lack is hardware acceleration and good tool-set back-end for game industry. But still I can play Quake in a browser. Browser, mobile and other you’d think small games grow in size and maturity. I can’t imagine how far it can go in the future but for sure I’m not expecting another Mafia or Farmville clones from Facebook as dominant examples in Cloud Gaming AD 2020.
What I expect is usage of local hardware (GPU, CPU) in some Internet aware device where 100% of the content will be streamlined from the Web. Natural, further evolution of what we have now, don’t you agree? I’m expecting that not hardware capacities but social networking power can be major trigger for new customer acquisition and that’s what have already started, big time!

Today’s hardware and technologies allow us to make it all what Square-Enix’s executive says even now. RIA games grow in size and maturity in amazing speed. Blocker is market readiness to accept dramatical shift in mindset (own versus use) so fast. Industry leaders need to evangelize consumers on that and in fact that are Mr. Wada’s motives in my opinion.

I’m personally not that afraid of shift itself. I’m afraid of equal offer available globally. I do not live in US and I perceive that many services are US and at general a particular country centric. Well educated consumer in Web 2.0 era thinks globally and gets benefits from that.
If a local store cannot offer good price and Dollar is cheap, I make a decision to import something even from Australia. It sounds absurd to my parents but to friends in my age that’s natural decision making.

If service is not available and it is definitely attractive people start cheating. That’s the case of Xbox Live in Poland. That’s the business of all commercial VPNs who allow people to freely utilize treasures of Netflix and have Sky TV over Internet.
As a vendor you can’t possibly block motivated user from evaluating you. They’ll bitch at you (as Polish Xbox users do every time they have good ground to speak), but still they will use it. In Web 2.0 and Cloud Computing era there is no such thing like “not available to you” for whatever reason.

Yeah,

Another “Hello world” in the blogosphere. I feel like I had already done that before. I’ve been blogging since 2004 or 2005 if I remember correctly. Many initiatives with different scope and content maturity. Once in Polish (my native), once testing international reader. Language proficiency in this history has taken also a very crucial part.

I remember very well that first post on MSDN Blogs in English. I tried to make my first professional blog on that platform, sharing my thoughts on Microsoft technologies with local and international readers.

For the moment, idea was not bad, but I quickly realized that with every post written, I’d been more and more interested in local only reader. Reasons were many. In Poland, I was presenting at conferences, trainings and other events for local developers. Language itself was not the problem, but if two Poles do talk, why use English in the background when I referred to something online.

So my English Posts category is long dead there. Quite recently I stopped marking Polish posts with [PL] prefix in the title. I realized that I’m not going to post any more English posts on that site. Not since that blog is cross posted on http://www.msdn.pl pages. [PL] prefix was nice, because I noticed that many other Polish bloggers used that prefix style to highlight their rare English postings (with [EN] for a change). Really interesting observation in social context and unspoken netiquette growth.

With growing popularity of that blog (as for my own acceptable scale), I realized that those pages are more official, regardless of my own statement.

Redesigning my private pages is the reaction. More and more I needed something rather private, something not so strongly branded with “MS only” label. Some place where I could start discussing and examining different topics. Some place where I could tell my international friends and colleagues that this is the place where they can follow my progress.

So I started with this entry. There will be more soon, that’s the blogging idea, right?

To give you short introduction what you can find here in the future, I’m going to explain basic content categories:

• Home – this page obviously gets everything
• Game Industry- My thoughts in this area from tools to design, from trends in business models to simple demands on the market. Definitely an industry worth watching.
• Labs – I’m a creative soul. So I want to share with you some news with my current developments and investigations.
• Microsoft – I work there, so I presume I’ll sneak in some MS-related information too.
• Polish Software Industry – I’m paid to know well what’s going on in my local software market. I’m proud Polish by the way, so why not to promote my country and software from it? Regardless if MS or not, Polish brilliant minds are worth international awareness.  
• Programming – Yeah I know.. I’m addicted. From time to time I presume I’ll paste here some source code too.
• Various Rants – Isn’t it what are you reading just right now?

Cheers,
Daniel Biesiada

PS. As it’s fresh, greetings to all of you guys, whom I met in Los Angeles, CA at PDC 09 this month. It was great time, and Carl Franklin was my best surprise.